Electricity Market Analysis: Winter 2025–2026

Read the summary:

• Derivative price expectations for the first quarter of 2026 are clearly higher than in the previous quarter.
• The price for the first quarter is typically higher, as electricity consumption is greater and temperature risks are at their peak.
• The new Aurora Line transmission connection will lower Finland’s area price and reduce the risk of high prices in the coming winter.
• Derivative levels for the second quarter of 2026 are notably lower than for the first quarter.

Electricity prices in northern Sweden have been much lower than in southern Sweden this year. This also affects electricity prices in Finland, as electricity is often imported from northern Sweden, where the price level is lower. Conversely, electricity is exported from Finland to southern Sweden.

During the autumn, maintenance work on transmission connections between Finland and northern Sweden reduced imports from northern Sweden to Finland. At the same time, the exceptionally long maintenance periods of nuclear power plants in southern Sweden have also contributed to raising Finland’s area price.

On November 13, the new Aurora Line transmission connection was commissioned, increasing transmission capacity between Finland and northern Sweden.

This will also lower Finland’s area price and reduce the risk of high prices in the coming winter. However, during periods that are colder and less windy than normal, high prices are still possible.

Rainy autumn weather has raised Nordic hydro reservoir levels slightly above normal, except in the southernmost price areas of Norway. As a result of the warm autumn, snow accumulation in Norway and Sweden has so far been lower than normal, which in turn would mean slightly lower meltwater flows next spring.

However, winter is only just beginning, and the snow situation can still change significantly.

In the first quarter of the year, electricity consumption is at its highest due to the large heating and lighting needs in the Nordic countries. Electricity prices are also typically at their highest in winter. However, if the winter turns out to be mild, windy, and rainy, low spot prices are also possible.

At the time of writing, Finnish area price derivatives for the first quarter of the next year were about €70/MWh and for the second quarter about €35/MWh.

In spring, electricity consumption is considerably lower than in winter, and solar power production also increases as the days grow longer again.

This is why prices during the second quarter may be much lower compared to the first quarter.

This market analysis has been produced in cooperation with Power-Deriva Oy