Electricity Market Analysis: Summer 2026

Read the summary

• The Nordic region has experienced unusually low precipitation with below-normal reservoir levels.
• Limited water availability and low wind generation have pushed spot prices higher in the Nordics, at times reaching Central European levels.
• The US–Iran conflict impact electricity prices in Europe and spilling over into the Nordics.
• Nuclear maintenance will tighten supply later in the summer, and prices may fluctuate significantly. Forward markets indicate higher prices toward year-end.

The current year has been exceptionally dry in the Nordic region, and winter snow accumulation remained very low. The energy content of water reservoirs in Norway and Sweden is approximately 20 terawatt hours (TWh) below normal, which corresponds to about one quarter of Finland’s annual electricity consumption.

Snowmelt is replenishing reservoirs less than usual this year, and hydropower producers are having to regulate their production.

Due to the weak snow situation, spot prices in Norway have been higher than in Germany this year, which has also pushed prices up elsewhere in the Nordic region.

In addition, annual maintenance outages are ongoing at nuclear power plants in Finland and Sweden. During periods of low wind power generation, Finland’s spot price has risen to levels comparable to those in Central Europe.

The war between the United States and Iran caused disruptions in the movement of oil and natural gas supplies during spring, and prices for fossil fuels have increased.

Representatives of the United States and Iran have negotiated to end the war, but no progress has yet been made. If the war continues, fuel inventories will decline further, and prices may continue rising.

The price of natural gas has a strong influence on electricity prices in Central Europe. Due to low precipitation levels in the Nordic countries, the high electricity prices in Central Europe have also been reflected in the north.

In Europe, efforts to refill gas storage facilities for the coming winter have begun. Storage levels can be replenished if LNG shipments from North America to Europe and Europe’s own gas production in the North Sea operate normally.

The annual maintenance of nuclear power plant Olkiluoto 2 will be completed by June 13, strengthening Finland’s electricity production capacity balance. During June and July, Finland’s area price is likely to remain below the Nordic system price.

However, from August to October, maintenance outages will take place at the Loviisa power plants and Olkiluoto 3. During this period, Finland’s capacity situation will again become tighter, and price levels may fluctuate significantly depending on variations in wind power generation.

Forward market expectations for Finland’s area price for the third quarter are around €54/MWh, and approximately €74/MWh for the fourth quarter.

Compared to the corresponding period last year, derivatives are now at a clearly higher level due to the weak hydrological situation and rising fuel prices.

As the first half of the year has been considerably drier than normal, market expectations for third-quarter price levels have also increased.

This market analysis has been produced in cooperation with Power-Deriva Oy