Electricity Market Analysis: Summer 2025

Electricity prices have remained low in the Nordic countries, and electricity exports to Central Europe have been high. In Central Europe, the cool winter weather occasionally raised the prices of natural gas, emission allowances, and electricity.

In Finland, the electricity price in spring exceeded the Nordic system price. The power plant Olkiluoto 3 was disconnected from the grid for maintenance from 1 March to 29 April, which increased the price level in Finland during the late winter.

However, the Estlink 2 submarine cable has been out of use since Boxing Day, reducing electricity transmission between Finland and Estonia and lowering Finland’s area price. 

In Norway and Sweden, the winter snow accumulation was lower than normal. As a result, the meltwater inflows into the hydroelectric reservoirs will be below average this summer. This increases electricity price expectations for the summer and autumn. However, if the weather turns out to be rainy, as was the case last year, the fill levels of hydroelectric reservoirs may remain high. 

The annual maintenance periods of the Swedish nuclear power plants have been extended, which in turn will increase the demand for hydropower already during the summer.

Sweden’s nuclear power outages will also have an upward impact on Finland’s area price.

The annual outages of the Olkiluoto nuclear power plants will end by mid-June. During August and September, the annual outages of the Loviisa nuclear power plants will raise the Finnish area price. 

The prices of electricity derivatives for the summer were still at a low level in April, but dry weather at the beginning of May and the extended maintenance at Swedish nuclear power plants have significantly raised the price expectations.

In the summer, wind power production also decreases, and similarly, electricity consumption is reduced as the weather warms up.

Abundant solar power production often results in low electricity prices in Central Europe and the Baltic countries around noon and in the afternoon hours, and this also lowers the Nordic system price and the area price in Finland.  

In mid-May, the derivative price quotations for Finland’s area price for the third quarter are around 35 €/MWh, and the quotations for the fourth quarter are around 49 €/MWh. According to current information, the outage of Estlink 2 will end on 15 July 2025, which will have an increasing impact on the Finnish area price in late summer and autumn.  

This market analysis has been produced in cooperation with Power-Deriva Oy.