Electricity Market Analysis: Autumn 2025

Elevated rainfall combined with strong wind power production in early summer has filled hydroelectric reservoirs especially in Sweden. Cheap Swedish hydropower can be imported to Finland, which helps limit price increases.

In Central Europe, the average price has remained significantly higher throughout the summer, at around 70 €/MWh. However, daytime solar power surpluses have occasionally pushed prices below zero. During these bright midday hours, electricity has also been imported from Central Europe to the Nordics, but for most of the time, the flow has been from the Nordics to the south.

Despite nuclear power plant maintenance in Finland, prices have remained low over the summer. In the autumn, maintenance work continues at the Loviisa nuclear power plants.

Nuclear maintenance is also ongoing in Sweden. The country’s largest nuclear unit, Oskarshamn 3, will remain offline until mid-September due to delays, although it was originally scheduled to be back in production by late spring.

In the Nordics, over 4 gigawatts of nuclear capacity will be offline during the first week of September due to maintenance.

In Norway, hydro reservoirs are very full in the northern price areas, while southern regions are experiencing below-average reservoir levels. There are insufficient transmission connections between Northern and Southern Norway to balance reservoir levels across the country. As a result, Norway is currently experiencing significant price differences between the north and south. Both the distribution and quantity of rainfall play thus a crucial role.

In Sweden, hydro reservoirs are currently well-filled, and the high level of hydro storage is likely to keep Finland’s area price low in the coming months due to transmission connections.

During the summer, electricity derivatives for the final quarter of the year were occasionally priced very low, driven by strong wind power production and above-average hydro levels even in Southern Norway.

However, a drier late summer, reduced wind power output, and delays in Swedish nuclear maintenance have pushed price expectations higher.

As of mid-August, Finland’s area price derivatives for the final quarter of 2025 are around 53 €/MWh, while the price for the first quarter of 2026 stands at 69 €/MWh.

Electricity prices in Finland are clearly expected to rise toward winter: the final derivative quote for the third quarter was significantly lower, at around 29 €/MWh.

A new transmission connection between Finland and Northern Sweden, the Aurora Line, will be completed in December.

Once operational, the transmission connection is expected to bring Finland’s area price closer to that of Northern Sweden, thereby having a lowering effect on the Finnish area price.

This market analysis has been produced in cooperation with Power-Deriva Oy